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If the current year was already shaping up to be the worst year in modern history for the international system established after WWII, recent days proved to be among the most devastating so far. Israel deepened its disregard toward global agreements after deploying 10 fighter jets to Qatar, striking a Hamas delegation engaged in peace negotiations in Doha. The last meaningful forum aimed at dialogue may now have gone up in smoke.

At least a group of unmanned aerial vehicles from Russia breached Poland’s airspace. For the first time, allied military aircraft were deployed against enemy targets within the borders of a member nation. Whether this violation resulted from an error or intentional testing by Moscow, as western experts believe, it represented “the closest we have been to open conflict after WWII,” Poland’s prime minister, the head of government, said.

Subsequently, a prominent conservative voice, a firebrand conservative activist and close Donald Trump ally, was assassinated while addressing college students and political followers on a campus in Utah. In the absence of proof regarding the perpetrator or intentions, Trump immediately blamed “those on the radical left,” accusing them of rhetoric “directly responsible for the terrorism occurring currently in our country now.”

Asked how the divided nation could heal after Kirk’s assassination, he responded he “couldn’t care less”. The reasoning provided proved alarming: Right-wing extremists act aggressively since they don’t want to see crime … Leftist activists pose the real threat – and they are dangerous and despicable and strategically clever.” This is how political division hardens into tribalism. Thus the spiral of hatred rush headlong into irreversible conflict.

In reality, over 75% of deaths linked to extremism across America in the past decade have come from individuals on the far right, while left-wing radicals accountable for only a fraction of them. Trump condemned political violence in general a day later – yet omitted mention of a series of recent of attacks targeting liberal figures, which involved multiple murders. From his perspective, the problem is always “them”, never the loyal supporters constituting his core followers.

The societal repercussions of Kirk’s death are certain to emerge in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger in a polarised climate is that the shooting transforms into a Reichstag fire in contemporary times. That arson attack on 27 February 1933 marked Germany’s pivot away from democracy to outright dictatorship. The Nazi leader, newly appointed as head of state, capitalized on the incident to extinguish basic rights under previous governance – expression, media independence, association, assembly.

“Anyone who stands in our way will be cut down,” he said, surveying the arsoned building. Thousands of communists were jailed, even elected representatives in parliament. With the left neutralised, the ruling party swiftly consolidated power.

Within modern America, the tragic killing has gripped the country, galvanising the Maga movement and loyalists, a fact he recognizes. The white supremacist, a controversial commentator, demanded the arrest of all opposing lawmakers, explicitly labeling the murder as the movement’s turning point.

In truth, this incident serves as that could rescue a struggling administration plagued with a sharp drop in employment figures, currency devaluation, and a housing crisis. Trump mourned Kirk like a lost relative, but the rhetoric implied it might become as much about targeting opponents as justice. Right after the murder, he vowed to pursue “each and every one involved directly or indirectly in this tragedy … including the organisations that fund and support it.” He singled out a billionaire philanthropist, a donor to liberal causes and political contributor. He is dangerous,” Trump told NBC News, he “should be put in jail.”

The motive behind Kirk’s killing are still unknown. The political views belonging to the attacker, a young individual, seem confused as those of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20 year old who attempted to assassinate Trump at a rally. Is this truly left-wing extremism attacking the radical right – or is it an obscure online culture of online niches entering the real world? The slogans engraved upon the bullet casings in Utah read less like an ideological manifesto than a crude bricolage of puerile memes and gaming references.

Yet concerns arise that suppression of dissenting scholars, legal professionals, media workers, government employees, armed forces members, and judges in the US will intensify. Thus far, online responses have led to multiple instances of terminations and diplomatic staff have warned foreign nationals against endorsing or joking about the murder, directing embassies to take “appropriate action” against any foreigners who do.

The former president has often prospered on chaos and disorder. Where real crises do not exist, he invents scenarios – including imagined crime pandemics in major cities, Washington DC and Chicago. Fake chaos fuels his power grab. Currently, he possesses chaos on a silver platter. No wonder he couldn’t care less if the nation comes together.

The shooting provides the perfect pretext for tightening his grip, muzzling opposition, and centralizing authority – so that his successors to assume total governmental power, irrespective of personal appeal, merit or electoral support. After all, all authoritarian regimes has to be built first; after consolidation, it is simpler to maintain.

Democratic systems and the rules-based global order have flaws, but they have delivered stability, advancement and prosperity – the very opposite of dictatorial rule. To suggest that the US, a founder of modern systems, might rapidly descend into full-blown autocracy, its leaders thinking like Nazis in 1933, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is not far-fetched at all. Authoritarian rule remained recent history when many of us of individuals within contemporary Western nations were growing up. Across European states, most families retain memories of the death, destruction, animosity and poverty resulting from oppressive regimes. If Americans want to save coming years, they should examine our recent past.